Empirical Development of a Behavioral Intervention for African American/Black and Latino Persons with Unsuppressed HIV Viral Load Levels: An Application of the Multiphase Optimization Strategy (MOST) Using Cost-Effectiveness as an Optimization Objective.

We used results from an optimization randomized controlled trial which tested five behavioral intervention components to support HIV antiretroviral adherence/HIV viral suppression, grounded in the multiphase optimization strategy and using a fractional factorial design to identify intervention components with cost-effectiveness sufficiently favorable for scalability. Results were incorporated into a validated HIV computer simulation to simulate longer-term effects of combinations of components on health and costs. We simulated the 32 corresponding long-term trajectories for viral load suppression, health related quality of life (HRQoL), and costs. The components were designed to be culturally and structurally salient. They were: motivational interviewing counseling sessions (MI), pre-adherence skill building (SB), peer mentorship (PM), focused support groups (SG), and patient navigation (short version [NS], long version [NL]. All participants also received health education on HIV treatment. We examined four scenarios: one-time intervention with and without discounting and continuous interventions with and without discounting. In all four scenarios, interventions that comprise or include SB and NL (and including health education) were cost effective (< $100,000/quality-adjusted life year). Further, with consideration of HRQoL impact, maximal intervention became cost-effective enough to be scalable. Thus, a fractional factorial experiment coupled with cost-effectiveness analysis is a promising approach to optimize multi-component interventions for scalability. The present study can guide service planning efforts for HIV care settings and health departments.

Risk Perceptions and Risk Thresholds Among Surgeons in the Management of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine whether surgeon variation in management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is driven by differences in risk perception and quantify surgeons' risk threshold for changing their recommendations. BACKGROUND: Surgeons vary widely in management of IPMN. METHODS: We conducted a survey of members of the Americas HepatoPancreatoBiliary Association, presented participants with 2 detailed clinical vignettes and asked them to choose between surgical resection and surveillance. We also asked them to judge the likelihood that the IPMN harbors cancer and that the patient would have a serious complication if surgery was performed. Finally, we asked surgeons to rate the level of cancer risk at which they would change their treatment recommendation. We examined the association between surgeons' treatment recommendations and their risk perception and risk threshold. RESULTS: One hundred fifty surgeons participated in the study. Surgeons varied in their recommendations for surgery [19% for vignette 1 (V1) and 12% for V2] and in their perception of the cancer risk (interquartile range: 2%-10% for V1 and V2) and risk of surgical complications (V1 interquartile range: 10%-20%, V2 20-30%). After adjusting for surgeon characteristics, surgeons who were above the median in cancer risk perception were 22 percentage points (27% vs 5%) more likely to recommend resection than those who were below the median (95% CI: 11%-4%; P <0.001). The median risk threshold at which surgeons would change their recommendation was 15% (V1 and V2). Surgeons who recommended surgery had a lower risk threshold for changing their recommendation than those who recommended surveillance (V1: 10.0 vs 15.0, P =0.06; V2: 7.0 vs 15.0, P =0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The treatment that patients receive for IPMNs depends greatly on how their surgeons perceive the risk of cancer in the lesion. Efforts to improve cancer risk prediction for IPMNs may lead to decreased variations in care.

Potential health benefits of integrated screening strategies for alcohol, tobacco, other substance use, depression, anxiety, and chronic pain among people living with HIV in the USA: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use, tobacco use, and other substance use often co-occur with depression, anxiety, and chronic pain, forming a constellation of alcohol, substance, and mood-related (CASM) conditions that disproportionately affects people with HIV in the USA. We used a microsimulation model to evaluate how alternative screening strategies accounting for CASM interdependence could affect life expectancy in people with HIV in the USA. METHODS: We augmented a microsimulation model previously validated to predict US adult life expectancy, including in people with HIV. Using data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study, we incorporated CASM co-occurrence, inferred causal relationships between CASM conditions, and assessed the effects of CASM on HIV treatment and preventive care. We simulated an in-care HIV cohort exposed to alternative CASM screening and diagnostic assessment strategies, ranging from currently recommended screenings (alcohol, tobacco, and depression, with diagnostic assessments for conditions screening positive) to a series of integrated strategies (screening for alcohol, tobacco, or depression with additional diagnostic assessments if any screened positive) to a maximal saturation strategy (diagnostic assessments for all CASM conditions). FINDINGS: The saturation strategy increased life expectancy by 0·95 years (95% CI 0·93-0·98) compared with no screening. Recommended screenings provided much less benefit: 0·06 years (0·03-0·09) gained from alcohol screening, 0·08 years (0·06-0·11) from tobacco screening, 0·10 years (0·08-0·11) from depression screening, and 0·25 years (0·22-0·27) from all three screenings together. One integrated strategy (screening alcohol, tobacco, and depression with diagnostic assessment for all CASM conditions if any screened positive) produced near-maximal benefit (0·82 years [0·80-0·84]) without adding substantial screening burden, albeit requiring additional diagnostic assessments. INTERPRETATION: Primary care providers for people with HIV should consider comprehensive diagnostic assessment of CASM conditions if one or more conditions screen positive. FUNDING: US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism.

The Influence of Patient Preference on Surgeons' Treatment Recommendations in the Management of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine whether surgeon variation in management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) is driven by differences in risk perception and quantify surgeons' risk threshold for changing their recommendations. BACKGROUND: Surgeons vary widely in management of IPMN. METHODS: We conducted a survey of members of the Americas HepatoPancreatoBiliary Association, presented participants with 2 detailed clinical vignettes and asked them to choose between surgical resection and surveillance. We also asked them to judge the likelihood that the IPMN harbors cancer and that the patient would have a serious complication if surgery was performed. Finally, we asked surgeons to rate the level of cancer risk at which they would change their treatment recommendation. We examined the association between surgeons' treatment recommendations and their risk perception and risk threshold. RESULTS: One hundred and fifty surgeons participated in the study. Surgeons varied in their recommendations for surgery [19% for vignette 1 (V1) and 12% for V2] and in their perception of the cancer risk (interquartile range: 2%-10% for V1 and V2) and risk of surgical complications (V1 interquartile range: 10%-20%, V2 20%-30%). After adjusting for surgeon characteristics, surgeons who were above the median in cancer risk perception were 22 percentage points (27% vs. 5%) more likely to recommend resection than those who were below the median (95% CI: 11.34%; P <0.001). The median risk threshold at which surgeons would change their recommendation was 15% (V1 and V2). Surgeons who recommended surgery had a lower risk threshold for changing their recommendation than those who recommended surveillance (V1: 10.0 vs. 15.0, P =0.06; V2: 7.0 vs. 15.0, P =0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The treatment that patients receive for IPMNs depends greatly on how their surgeons perceive the risk of cancer in the lesion. Efforts to improve cancer risk prediction for IPMNs may lead to decreased variations in care.

Sustaining PrEP Prescriptions at a Safety-Net Hospital in New York City During COVID-19: Lessons Learned.

To understand the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on PrEP services, we reviewed PrEP prescriptions at NYC Health + Hospitals/Bellevue from July 2019 through July 2021. PrEP prescriptions were examined as PrEP person-equivalents (PrEP PE) in order to account for the variable time of refill duration (i.e., 1-3 months). To assess "PrEP coverage", we calculated PrEP medication possession ratios (MPR) while patients were under study observation. Pre-clinic closure, mean PrEP PE = 244.2 (IQR 189.2, 287.5; median = 252.5) were observed. Across levels of clinic closures, mean PrEP PE = 247.3, (IQR 215.5, 265.4; median = 219.9) during 100% clinic closure, 255.4 (IQR 224, 284.3; median = 249.0) during 80% closure, and 274.6 (IQR 273.0, 281.0; median = 277.2) during 50% closure were observed. Among patients continuously prescribed PrEP pre-COVID-19, the mean MPR mean declined from 83% (IQR 72-100%; median = 100%) to 63% (IQR 35-97%; median = 66%) after the onset of COVID-19. For patients newly initiated on PrEP after the onset of COVID-19, the mean MPR was 73% (IQR 41-100%; median = 100%). Our ability to sustain PrEP provisions, as measured by both PrEP PE and MPR, can likely be attributed to our pre-COVID-19 system for PrEP delivery, which emphasizes navigation, same-day initiation, and primary care integration. In the era of COVID-19 as well as future unforeseen healthcare disruptions, PrEP programs must be robust and flexible in order to sustain PrEP delivery.

How severe would prioritization-induced bottlenecks need to be offset the benefits from prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination to those most at risk in New York City?

BACKGROUND: Prioritization of higher-risk people for COVID-19 vaccination could prevent more deaths, but could slow vaccination speed. We used mathematical modeling to examine the trade-off between vaccination speed and prioritization for individuals age 65+ and essential workers. METHODS: We used a stochastic, discrete-time susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model with age- and comorbidity-adjusted COVID-19 outcomes (infections, hospitalizations, and deaths). The model was calibrated to COVID-19 hospitalizations, ICU census, and deaths in NYC. We assumed 10,000 vaccinations per day, initially restricted to healthcare workers and nursing home populations, and subsequently expanded to other populations at alternative times (4, 5, or 6 weeks after vaccine launch) and speeds (20,000, 50,000, 100,000, or 150,000 vaccinations per day), as well as prioritization options (+/- prioritization of people age 65+ and essential workers). In sensitivity analyses, we examined the effect of a SARS-COV-2 variant with greater transmissibility. RESULTS: To be beneficial, prioritization must not create a bottleneck that decreases vaccination speed by > 50% without a more transmissible variant, or by > 33% with the emergence of the more transmissible variant. More specifically, prioritizing people age 65+ and essential workers increased the number of lives saved per vaccine dose delivered: 3000 deaths could be averted by delivering 83,000 vaccinations per day without prioritization or 50,000 vaccinations per day with prioritization. Other tradeoffs involve vaccination speed and timing. Compared to the slowest-examined vaccination speed of 20,000 vaccinations per day, achieving the fastest-examined vaccination speed of 150,000 vaccinations per day would avert additional 313,700 (28.6%) infections and 1693 (24.1%) deaths. Emergence of a more transmissible variant would double COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths over the first 6 months of vaccination. The fastest-examined vaccination speed could only offset the harm of the more transmissible variant if achieved within 5 weeks of vaccine launch. CONCLUSIONS: Faster vaccination speed with sooner vaccination expansion would save more lives. Prioritization of COVID-19 vaccines to higher-risk populations would be more beneficial only if it does not create an excessive vaccine delivery bottleneck.

Cessation of self-reported opioid use and impacts on co-occurring health conditions.

BACKGROUND: Among veterans in care reporting opioid use, we investigated the association between ceasing opioid use on subsequent reduction in report of other substance use and improvements in pain, anxiety, and depression. METHODS: Using Veterans Aging Cohort Study survey data collected between 2003 and 2012, we emulated a hypothetical randomized trial (target trial) of ceasing self-reported use of prescription opioids and/or heroin, and outcomes including unhealthy alcohol use, smoking, cannabis use, cocaine use, pain, and anxiety and depressive symptoms. Among those with baseline opioid use, we compared participants who stopped reporting opioid use at the first follow-up (approximately 1 year after baseline) with those who did not. We fit logistic regression models to estimate associations with change in each outcome at the second follow-up (approximately 2 years after baseline) among participants with that condition at baseline. We examined two sets of adjusted models that varied temporality assumptions. RESULTS: Among 2473 participants reporting opioid use, 872 did not report use, 606 reported use, and 995 were missing data on use at the first follow-up. Ceasing opioid use was associated with no longer reporting cannabis (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=1.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10, 3.03) and cocaine use (AOR=1.93, 95% CI 1.16, 3.20), and improvements in pain (AOR=1.53, 95% CI 1.05, 2.24) and anxiety (AOR=1.56, 95% CI 1.01, 2.41) symptoms. CONCLUSION: Cessation of opioid misuse may be associated with subsequent cessation of other substances and reduction in pain and anxiety symptoms, which supports efforts to screen and provide evidence-based intervention where appropriate.

Misalignment of Reward Response With Healthful Behavior: An Underappreciated Driver of Population Health Deficits and Health Disparities?

Socioeconomic status-related (SES-related) health disparities are worsening across resource-rich environments, despite increased knowledge about health determinants and inducements for healthful behavior change. We ask whether insights from addiction science and evolutionary biology may assist understanding and counteracting SES-related health disparities. It is known that a mismatch between evolved traits and behaviors that conserve energy drives many health deficits. We posit that this energy mismatch is one manifestation of a more expansive mismatch in levels of reward activation, between environments more versus less manipulated by human activity. This larger mismatch explains why SES-related health disparities arise not only from overeating and excessive sedentism, but also from alcohol, nicotine, other substances, and mood disorders. Lower SES persons are more likely to have lower baseline reward activation, which leads to higher prioritization of reward elevating activities, and at the same time are less likely to act on knowledge about unhealthfulness of behaviors.

Are healthful behavior change policies ever unethical?

Public health experts often assume that any policy promoting healthful behavior change is inherently and self-evidently ethical. This assumption is incorrect. This Viewpoint describes why evaluating the ethics of a policy to promote healthful behavior change should require (1) valuing consequences for wellbeing proportionately to consequences for health, (2) valuing changes to the distributional equity of health and wellbeing together with their aggregate improvement, and (3) anticipating and surveilling for unintended consequences sufficiently important to offset benefits. I illustrate these three requirements through a hypothetical salt restriction policy, which is unethical if it evokes strong preferences that detract from wellbeing, disproportionately confers health benefits to those who are already healthy, or elicits unintended consequences that offset health benefits. I discuss why analogies of salt restriction mandates are inappropriate. In summary, public health decision-makers should employ more structured, explicit and comprehensive criteria when considering the ethical consequences of policies.

Social distancing and mask-wearing could avoid recurrent stay-at-home restrictions during COVID-19 respiratory pandemic in New York City.

Stay-at-home restrictions such as closure of non-essential businesses were effective at reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission in New York City (NYC) in the spring of 2020. Relaxation of these restrictions was desirable for resuming economic and social activities, but could only occur in conjunction with measures to mitigate the expected resurgence of new infections, in particular social distancing and mask-wearing. We projected the impact of individuals' adherence to social distancing and mask-wearing on the duration, frequency, and recurrence of stay-at-home restrictions in NYC. We applied a stochastic discrete time-series model to simulate community transmission and household secondary transmission in NYC. The model was calibrated to hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and COVID-attributable deaths over March-July 2020 after accounting for the distribution of age and chronic health conditions in NYC. We projected daily new infections and hospitalizations up to May 31, 2021 under the different levels of adherence to social distancing and mask-wearing after relaxation of stay-at-home restrictions. We assumed that the relaxation of stay-at-home policies would occur in the context of adaptive reopening, where a new hospitalization rate of ≥ 2 per 100,000 residents would trigger reinstatement of stay-at-home restrictions while a new hospitalization rate of ≤ 0.8 per 100,000 residents would trigger relaxation of stay-at-home restrictions. Without social distancing and mask-wearing, simulated relaxation of stay-at-home restrictions led to epidemic resurgence and necessary reinstatement of stay-at-home restrictions within 42 days. NYC would have stayed fully open for 26% of the time until May 31, 2021, alternating reinstatement and relaxation of stay-at-home restrictions in four cycles. At a low (50%) level of adherence to mask-wearing, NYC would have needed to implement stay-at-home restrictions between 8% and 32% of the time depending on individual adherence to social distancing. At moderate to high levels of adherence to mask-wearing without social distancing, NYC would have needed to implement stay-at-home restrictions. In threshold analyses, avoiding reinstatement of stay-at-home restrictions required a minimum of 60% adherence to mask-wearing at 50% adherence to social distancing. With low adherence to mask-wearing and social distancing, reinstatement of stay-at-home restrictions in NYC was inevitable. High levels of adherence to social distancing and mask-wearing could have attributed to avoiding recurrent surges without reinstatement of stay-at-home restrictions.

Development and Pilot Evaluation of a Decision Aid for Small Kidney Masses.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and pilot test a patient decision aid (DA) describing small kidney masses and risks and benefits of treatment for the masses. METHODS: An expert committee iteratively designed a small kidney mass DA, incorporating evidence-based risk communication and informational needs for treatment options and shared decision-making. After literature review and drafting content with the feedback of urologists, radiologists, and an internist, a rapid qualitative assessment was conducted using two patient focus groups to inform user-centered design. In a pilot study, 30 patients were randomized at the initial urologic consultation to receive the DA or existing institutional patient educational material (PEM). Preconsultation questionnaires captured patient knowledge and shared decision-making preferences. After review of the DA and subsequent clinician consultation, patients completed questionnaires on discussion content and satisfaction. Proportions between arms were compared using Fisher exact tests, and decision measures were compared using Mann-Whitney tests. RESULTS: Patient informational needs included risk of tumor growth during active surveillance and ablation, significance of comorbidities, and posttreatment recovery. For the DA, 84% of patients viewed all content, and mean viewing time was 20 min. Significant improvements in knowledge about small mass risks and treatments were observed (mean total scores: 52.6% DA versus 22.3% PEM, P < .001). DA use also increased the proportion of patients discussing ablation (66.7% DA versus 18.2% PEM, P = .02). Decision satisfaction measures were similar in both arms. DISCUSSION: Patients receiving a small kidney mass DA are likely to gain knowledge and preparedness to discuss all treatment options over standard educational materials.

Real-Time Infectious Disease Modeling to Inform Emergency Public Health Decision Making.

Infectious disease transmission is a nonlinear process with complex, sometimes unintuitive dynamics. Modeling can transform information about a disease process and its parameters into quantitative projections that help decision makers compare public health response options. However, modelers face methodologic challenges, data challenges, and communication challenges, which are exacerbated under the time constraints of a public health emergency. We review methods, applications, challenges and opportunities for real-time infectious disease modeling during public health emergencies, with examples drawn from the two deadliest pandemics in recent history: HIV/AIDS and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Brief original report: Does smoking status provide information relevant to screening for other substance use among US adults?

We assessed whether tobacco screening provides clinically meaningful information about other substance use, including alcohol and other drug use, potentially facilitating targeting of screening for substance use. Using data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study survey sample (VACS; N = 7510), we calculated test performance characteristics of tobacco use screening results for identification of other substance use including sensitivity, specificity, positive-likelihood-ratio (+LR = [sensitivity/(1-specificity)]: increase in odds of substance use informed by a positive tobacco screen), and negative-likelihood-ratio (-LR: [(1-sensitivity)/specificity]: reduction in odds of substance use informed by a negative tobacco screen). The sample was 95% male, 75% minority, and 43% were current and 33% were former smokers. Never smoking, versus any history, indicated an approximate four-fold decrease in the odds of injection drug use (-LR = 0.26), an approximate 2.5-fold decrease in crack/cocaine (-LR = 0.35) and unhealthy alcohol use (-LR = 0.40), an approximate two-fold decrease in marijuana (-LR = 0.51) and illicit opioid use (-LR = 0.48), and an approximate 30% decrease in non-crack/cocaine stimulant use (-LR = 0.75). Never smoking yielded more information than current non-smoking (never/former smoking). Positive results on tobacco screening were less informative than negative results; current smoking, versus former/never smoking, provided more information than lifetime smoking and was associated with a 40% increase in the odds of non-crack/cocaine stimulant use (+LR = 1.40) and opioid use (+LR = 1.44), 50% increase in marijuana use (+LR = 1.52) and injection drug use (+LR = 1.55), and an 80-90% increase in crack/cocaine use (+LR = 1.93) and unhealthy alcohol use (+LR = 1.75). When comprehensive screening for substance use is not possible, tobacco screening may inform decisions about targeting substance use screening.

Association of Syndemic Unhealthy Alcohol Use, Smoking, and Depressive Symptoms on Incident Cardiovascular Disease among Veterans With and Without HIV-Infection.

Unhealthy alcohol use, smoking, and depressive symptoms are risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Little is known about their co-occurrence - termed a syndemic, defined as the synergistic effect of two or more conditions-on CVD risk in people with HIV (PWH). We used data from 5621 CVD-free participants (51% PWH) in the Veteran's Aging Cohort Study-8, a prospective, observational study of veterans followed from 2002 to 2014 to assess the association between this syndemic and incident CVD by HIV status. Diagnostic codes identified cases of CVD (acute myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, peripheral artery disease, and coronary revascularization). Validated measures of alcohol use, smoking, and depressive symptoms were used. Baseline number of syndemic conditions was categorized (0, 1, ≥ 2 conditions). Multivariable Cox Proportional Hazards regressions estimated risk of the syndemic (≥ 2 conditions) on incident CVD by HIV-status. There were 1149 cases of incident CVD (52% PWH) during the follow-up (median 10.1 years). Of the total sample, 64% met our syndemic definition. The syndemic was associated with greater risk for incident CVD among PWH (Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.87 [1.47-2.38], p < 0.001) and HIV-negative veterans (HR 1.70 [1.35-2.13], p < 0.001), compared to HIV-negative with zero conditions. Among those with the syndemic, CVD risk was not statistically significantly higher among PWH vs. HIV-negative (HR 1.10 [0.89, 1.37], p = .38). Given the high prevalence of this syndemic combined with excess risk of CVD, these findings support linked-screening and treatment efforts.

When does nonadherence indicate a deviation from patient-centered care?

Patient-centered care, defined as "providing care that is respectful of, and responsive to, individual patient preferences, needs and values, and ensuring that patient values guide all clinical decisions," is advocated by clinicians and professional organizations and is part of a composite criterion for augmented reimbursement for various health care settings, including patient-centered medical homes. Despite general agreement that patient-centered care is a good idea and worthy of incentivization, patient-centered care is difficult to assess accurately, scalably, and feasibly. In this commentary, we suggest that assessment of patient-centered care may be improved by identifying circumstances that indicate its probable absence-in particular, by flagging probable discordance between a patient's preferences and their treatment care plan. One potential marker of this discordance is persistent lack of control of a comorbid condition that is easily controllable by existing therapies and where existing therapies are sufficiently diverse to be compatible with a wide range of patient preferences (eg, stage 1 hypertension, type 2 diabetes with glycated hemoglobin < 8.5%). We outline how this approach may be tested, validated, and harmonized with existing quality improvement activities.

Integrating Screening and Treatment of Unhealthy Alcohol Use and Depression with Screening and Treatment of Anxiety, Pain, and Other Substance Use Among People with HIV and Other High-Risk Persons.

We review and synthesize results from a series of analyses estimating the benefit of screening for unhealthy alcohol use, depression, and tobacco to detect individuals at heightened risk for co-occurring anxiety, pain, depression, unhealthy alcohol use, and other substance use among people with HIV and HIV-uninfected individuals in the Veterans Aging Cohort Study. We also examine the potential impact of reducing unhealthy alcohol use and depressive symptoms on the incidence of co-occurring conditions. We found that screening for alcohol and depression may help identify co-occurring symptoms of anxiety, depression, and pain interference, treating unhealthy alcohol use may improve co-occurring pain interference and substance use, and improving depressive symptoms may improve co-occurring anxiety, pain interference, and smoking. We propose that an integrated approach to screening and treatment for unhealthy alcohol use, depression, anxiety, pain, and other substance use may facilitate diagnostic assessment and treatment of these conditions, improving morbidity and mortality.

Project ACTIVE: a Randomized Controlled Trial of Personalized and Patient-Centered Preventive Care in an Urban Safety-Net Setting.

BACKGROUND: Evidence-based preventive care in the USA is underutilized, diminishing population health and worsening health disparities. We developed Project ACTIVE, a program to improve adherence with preventive care goals through personalized and patient-centered care. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether Project ACTIVE improved utilization of preventive care and/or estimated life expectancy compared to usual care. DESIGN: Single-site randomized controlled trial. PARTICIPANTS: Cluster-randomized 140 English or Spanish speaking adult patients in primary care with at least one of twelve unfulfilled preventive care goals based on USPSTF grade A and B recommendations. INTERVENTION: Project ACTIVE employs a validated mathematical model to predict and rank individualized estimates of health benefit that would arise from improved adherence to different preventive care guidelines. Clinical staff engaged the participant in a shared medical decision-making (SMD) process to identify highest priority unfulfilled clinical goals, and health coaching staff engaged the participant to develop and monitor action steps to reach those goals. MAIN MEASURES: Change in number of unfulfilled preventive care goals from USPSTF grade A and B recommendations and change in overall gain in estimated life expectancy. KEY RESULTS: In an intent-to-treat analysis, Project ACTIVE increased the average number of fulfilled preventive care goals out of 12 by 0.68 in the intervention arm compared with 0.15 in the control arm (mean difference [95% CI] 0.53 [0.19-0.86]), yielding a gain in estimated life expectancy of 8.8 months (3.8, 14.2). In a per-protocol analysis, Project ACTIVE increased fulfilled preventive care goals by 0.80 in the intervention arm compared with 0.16 in the control arm (mean difference [95% CI], 0.65 [0.25-1.04]), yielding a gain in estimated life expectancy of 13.7 months (6.2, 21.2). Among the 12 preventive care goals, more improvement occurred for alcohol use, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, depression, and smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Project ACTIVE improved unfulfilled preventive care goals and improved estimated life expectancy. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04211883.

Are Discount Rates Too High? Population Health and Intergenerational Equity.

Increasing attention is being paid to policy decisions in which shorter-term benefits may be eclipsed by longer-term harms, such as environmental damage. Health policy decisions have largely been spared this scrutiny, even though they too may contribute to longer-term harms. Any healthy population or society must sustain itself through reproduction, and therefore, transgenerational outcomes should be of intrinsic importance from a societal perspective. Yet, the discount rates typically employed in cost-effectiveness analyses have the effect of minimizing the importance of transgenerational health outcomes. We argue that, because cost-effectiveness analysis is based on foundational axioms of decision theory, it should value transgenerational outcomes consistently with those axioms, which require discount rates substantially lower than 3%. We discuss why such lower rates may not violate the Cretin-Keeler paradox.

Point-of-care characterization and risk-based management of oral lesions in primary dental clinics: A simulation model.

OBJECTIVES: Oral potentially malignant disorders (OPMDs) encompass histologically benign, dysplastic, and cancerous lesions that are often indistinguishable by appearance and inconsistently managed. We assessed the potential impact of test-and-treat pathways enabled by a point-of-care test for OPMD characterization. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We constructed a decision-analytic model to compare life expectancy of test-treat strategies for 60-year-old patients with OPMDs in the primary dental setting, based on a trial for a point-of-care cytopathology tool (POCOCT). Eight strategies of OPMD detection and evaluation were compared, involving deferred evaluation (no further characterization), prompt OPMD characterization using POCOCT measurements, or the commonly recommended usual care strategy of routine referral for scalpel biopsy. POCOCT pathways differed in threshold for additional intervention, including surgery for any dysplasia or malignancy, or for only moderate or severe dysplasia or cancer. Strategies with initial referral for biopsy also reflected varied treatment thresholds in current practice between surgery and surveillance of mild dysplasia. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of variation in parameter values on model results. RESULTS: Requisite referral for scalpel biopsy offered the highest life expectancy of 20.92 life-years compared with deferred evaluation (+0.30 life-years), though this outcome was driven by baseline assumptions of limited patient adherence to surveillance using POCOCT. POCOCT characterization and surveillance offered only 0.02 life-years less than the most biopsy-intensive strategy, while resulting in 27% fewer biopsies. When the probability of adherence to surveillance and confirmatory biopsy was ≥ 0.88, or when metastasis rates were lower than reported, POCOCT characterization extended life-years (+0.04 life-years) than prompt specialist referral. CONCLUSION: Risk-based OPMD management through point-of-care cytology may offer a reasonable alternative to routine referral for specialist evaluation and scalpel biopsy, with far fewer biopsies. In patients who adhere to surveillance protocols, POCOCT surveillance may extend life expectancy beyond biopsy and follow up visual-tactile inspection.